Nuevo modelo matemático basado en inteligencia artificial y análisis de sensibilidad para el dimensionamiento de colectores solares de placa plana
Palabras clave:
Inteligencia artificial, desarrollo sustentable, modelo inteligente, dimensionamiento de sistemas energéticos, cobertura solar.
Resumen
Este estudio presenta el desarrollo de un modelo surrogado basado en redes neuronales artificiales (RNA) y un análisis de sensibilidad para un sistema de colectores solares de placa plana. El modelo fue entrenado utilizando una base de datos generada mediante el método f-chart, considerando siete variables de entrada: mes, número de colectores, irradiación solar, temperatura ambiente, velocidad del viento, temperatura y consumo de agua caliente sanitaria (ACS). La variable de salida objetivo fue la cobertura solar mensual. Los resultados revelaron que el modelo surrogado predijo de manera precisa la cobertura solar, con un coeficiente de determinación de 0.9956, un error cuadrático medio de 0.0188 y un error medio absoluto de 0.0159. El análisis de sensibilidad basado en el algoritmo de Garson reveló que el número de colectores fue la variable más influyente con 44 % de influencia sobre la cobertura solar. Estos resultados destacan la importancia de optimizar los parámetros de entrada para mejorar el rendimiento del sistema, así como el potencial de las redes neuronales artificiales como herramientas útiles y alternativas a los modelos convencionales en sistemas energéticos para la mejor toma de decisiones e identificación de áreas de oportunidad en la mejora de estos sistemas.
Citas
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Çapik, M., Yılmaz, A. O., and Çavuşoğlu, İ. (2012). Present situation and potential role of renewable energy in Turkey. Renewable Energy, 46, 1–13.
Cardoso-Fernández, V., Bassam, A., May Tzuc, O., Barrera Ch., M. A., Chan-González, J. de J., Escalante Soberanis, M. A., Velázquez-Limón, N., and Ricalde, L. J. (2023). Global sensitivity analysis of a generator-absorber heat exchange (GAX) system’s thermal performance with a hybrid energy source: An approach using artificial intelligence models. Applied Thermal Engineering, 218, 119363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2022.119363
Casabianca, G., and Aires, B. (2012). Predimensionado simplificado de instalaciones solares de agua caliente sanitaria según los criterios y normativas básicas de arquitectura escolar. 13–18.
Cetina-Quiñones, A. J., Sanchez-Dominguez, I., Casillas-Reyes, A., and Bassam, A. (2023). 9E analysis of a flat plate solar collector system implementation: A new approach based on digital twin model coupled with global sensitivity analysis and multi- objective optimization. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, 15. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0151617
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Duffie, J. A., Beckman, W. A., and Blair, N. (2020). Solar engineering of thermal processes, photovoltaics and wind. John Wiley & Sons.
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Ghritlahre, H. K., Chandrakar, P., and Ahmad, A. (2020). Application of ANN model to predict the performance of solar air heater using relevant input parameters. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 40(June), 100764. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2020.100764
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He, X., and Xu, S. (2010). Artificial neural networks. Process Neural Networks: Theory and Applications, 20–42.
Kayri, M. (2016). Predictive abilities of Bayesian regularization and Levenberg–Marquardt algorithms in artificial neural networks: a comparative empirical study on social data. Mathematical and Computational Applications, 21(2), 20.
Klein, S. A., Beckman, W. A., and Duffie, J. A. (1976). A design procedure for solar heating systems. Solar Energy, 18(2), 113–127.
Lévesque, B., Lavoie, M., and Joly, J. (2004). Residential water heater temperature: 49 or 60 degrees Celsius (Vol. 15, Issue 1).
Liu, P., Wu, J., Chen, L., Liu, Z., and Liu, W. (2021). Numerical analysis and multi-objective optimization design of parabolic trough receiver with ribbed absorber tube. Energy Reports, 7, 7488–7503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.10.084
Maria, A., Ahammed, N., Subathra, M. S. P., and Godson, L. (2016). Analysing the Performance of a Flat Plate Solar Collector with Silver / Water Nanofluid Using Artificial Neural Network. Procedia - Procedia Computer Science, 93(September), 33–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2016.07.178
Meteonorm. (2024). Meteonorm: World irradiation data. https://meteonorm.com/en/
Okafor, I. F., and Akubue, G. (2012). F-Chart Method for Designing Solar Thermal Water Heating Systems. 3(9).
Pandey, K. M., and Chaurasiya, R. (2017). A review on analysis and development of solar flat plate collector. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 67, 641–650. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.09.078
Rocha, J. H. de O., Gonçalves, R. S., Marrero, A. I. P., and Martins, K. C. R. (2022). Análise de um aquecedor solar através do método F-Chart e modelagem estatística. Brazilian Journal of Development, 8(11), 73544–73566. https://doi.org/10.34117/bjdv8n11-183
Rosli, M. A. M., Zaki, D. S. M., Rahman, F. A., Sepeai, S., Hamid, N. A., and Nawam, M. Z. (2019). F-chart method for design domestic hot water heating system in Ayer Keroh Melaka. Journal of Advanced Research in Fluid Mechanics and Thermal Sciences, 56(1), 59–67.
Shafiey Dehaj, M., Zamani Mohiabadi, M., and Hosseini, S. M. S. (2020). Prediction of the outlet flow temperature in a flat plate solar collector using artificial neural network. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 192(12). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08738-9
Singh Chauhan, P., Kumar, A., and Tekasakul, P. (2015). Applications of software in solar drying systems: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 51, 1326–1337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.025
Sujith, K. (2013). Design Of Active Solar Water Heating System Using F-Chart Method. 2(7), 296–299.
BOSCH. (2023). Colector solar de placa plana SO1500TFV.
Buker, M. S., and Ayompe, L. (2015). A Comparison of Flat Plate and Evacuated Tube Solar Collectors with F-Chart Method. Isi Bilimi Ve Teknigi Dergisi-Journal of Thermal Science and Technology, 35(1), 77–86.
Çapik, M., Yılmaz, A. O., and Çavuşoğlu, İ. (2012). Present situation and potential role of renewable energy in Turkey. Renewable Energy, 46, 1–13.
Cardoso-Fernández, V., Bassam, A., May Tzuc, O., Barrera Ch., M. A., Chan-González, J. de J., Escalante Soberanis, M. A., Velázquez-Limón, N., and Ricalde, L. J. (2023). Global sensitivity analysis of a generator-absorber heat exchange (GAX) system’s thermal performance with a hybrid energy source: An approach using artificial intelligence models. Applied Thermal Engineering, 218, 119363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2022.119363
Casabianca, G., and Aires, B. (2012). Predimensionado simplificado de instalaciones solares de agua caliente sanitaria según los criterios y normativas básicas de arquitectura escolar. 13–18.
Cetina-Quiñones, A. J., Sanchez-Dominguez, I., Casillas-Reyes, A., and Bassam, A. (2023). 9E analysis of a flat plate solar collector system implementation: A new approach based on digital twin model coupled with global sensitivity analysis and multi- objective optimization. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy, 15. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0151617
Cetina-Quiñones, A. J., Xamán, J., Bassam, A., Escalante Soberanis, M. A., and Perez-Quintana, I. (2021). Thermo-economic analysis of a flat solar collector with a phase changing material under tropical climate conditions: Residential and industrial case. Applied Thermal Engineering, 182(September 2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2020.116082
Cetina-Quiñones, A. J., Xaman, J., Bassam, A., and Soberanis, M. A. E. (2021). Thermo-economic analysis of a flat solar collector with a phase changing material under tropical climate conditions : Residential and industrial case. Applied Thermal Engineering, 182(March 2020). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2020.116082
Company, E. M. (2008). Measurement of Domestic Hot Water Consumption in Dwellings. Energy Saving Trust, 62.
Deepika, D., Baig, M. A. A., Reddy, A. R., and Maneaih, D. (2016). Utilization of f-Chart Method for Designing Solar Thermal Heating System. IOSR Journal of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, 16(053), 23–28. https://doi.org/10.9790/1684-16053042328
Dehaj Shafiey, M., Zamani Mohiabadi, M., and Sadegh Hosseini, S. M. (2020). Prediction of the outlet flow temperature in a flat plate solar collector using artificial neural network. Environ Monit Assess.
Duffie, J. A., Beckman, W. A., and Blair, N. (2020). Solar engineering of thermal processes, photovoltaics and wind. John Wiley & Sons.
Formacion, B. V., Muñiz, J. M. M., and Garcia, R. C. (2009). Energia Solar Termica. 2da. Edicion.
Ghanizadeh, A. R., Heidarabadizadeh, N., and Jalali, F. (2020). Artificial neural network back-calculation of flexible pavements with sensitivity analysis using Garson’s and connection weights algorithms. Innovative Infrastructure Solutions, 5, 1–19.
Ghritlahre, H. K., Chandrakar, P., and Ahmad, A. (2020). Application of ANN model to predict the performance of solar air heater using relevant input parameters. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 40(June), 100764. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2020.100764
Gopi, A., Sharma, P., Sudhakar, K., Ngui, W. K., Kirpichnikova, I., and Cuce, E. (2023). Weather Impact on Solar Farm Performance: A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Techniques. Sustainability (Switzerland), 15(1). https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010439
Hachicha, A. A., Yousef, B. A. A., Said, Z., and Rodríguez, I. (2019). A review study on the modeling of high-temperature solar thermal collector systems. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 112(May), 280–298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.05.056
He, X., and Xu, S. (2010). Artificial neural networks. Process Neural Networks: Theory and Applications, 20–42.
Kayri, M. (2016). Predictive abilities of Bayesian regularization and Levenberg–Marquardt algorithms in artificial neural networks: a comparative empirical study on social data. Mathematical and Computational Applications, 21(2), 20.
Klein, S. A., Beckman, W. A., and Duffie, J. A. (1976). A design procedure for solar heating systems. Solar Energy, 18(2), 113–127.
Lévesque, B., Lavoie, M., and Joly, J. (2004). Residential water heater temperature: 49 or 60 degrees Celsius (Vol. 15, Issue 1).
Liu, P., Wu, J., Chen, L., Liu, Z., and Liu, W. (2021). Numerical analysis and multi-objective optimization design of parabolic trough receiver with ribbed absorber tube. Energy Reports, 7, 7488–7503. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2021.10.084
Maria, A., Ahammed, N., Subathra, M. S. P., and Godson, L. (2016). Analysing the Performance of a Flat Plate Solar Collector with Silver / Water Nanofluid Using Artificial Neural Network. Procedia - Procedia Computer Science, 93(September), 33–40. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2016.07.178
Meteonorm. (2024). Meteonorm: World irradiation data. https://meteonorm.com/en/
Okafor, I. F., and Akubue, G. (2012). F-Chart Method for Designing Solar Thermal Water Heating Systems. 3(9).
Pandey, K. M., and Chaurasiya, R. (2017). A review on analysis and development of solar flat plate collector. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 67, 641–650. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.09.078
Rocha, J. H. de O., Gonçalves, R. S., Marrero, A. I. P., and Martins, K. C. R. (2022). Análise de um aquecedor solar através do método F-Chart e modelagem estatística. Brazilian Journal of Development, 8(11), 73544–73566. https://doi.org/10.34117/bjdv8n11-183
Rosli, M. A. M., Zaki, D. S. M., Rahman, F. A., Sepeai, S., Hamid, N. A., and Nawam, M. Z. (2019). F-chart method for design domestic hot water heating system in Ayer Keroh Melaka. Journal of Advanced Research in Fluid Mechanics and Thermal Sciences, 56(1), 59–67.
Shafiey Dehaj, M., Zamani Mohiabadi, M., and Hosseini, S. M. S. (2020). Prediction of the outlet flow temperature in a flat plate solar collector using artificial neural network. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 192(12). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08738-9
Singh Chauhan, P., Kumar, A., and Tekasakul, P. (2015). Applications of software in solar drying systems: A review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 51, 1326–1337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.07.025
Sujith, K. (2013). Design Of Active Solar Water Heating System Using F-Chart Method. 2(7), 296–299.
Publicado
2025-06-13
Sección
Artículos de Investigación
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